hurricanesfandomcom-20200216-history
Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season
Future Start I'll make my worldwide predictions later. EPac's betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:07, October 28, 2013 (UTC) Here are my predictions for the Eastern Pacific: 21 tropical depressions, 21 tropical storms, 18 hurricanes, 10 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 274 (give or take 10). A visual of my prediction can be found here. AndrewTalk To Me 01:49, January 3, 2014 (UTC) : Geez Andrew, that's a little too ''wild, don't you think? Here's my predictions: '''20 '''depressions, '''18 '''named storms, '''12 '''hurricanes, and '''5 '''major hurricanes. An incoming El Nino could make the EPac heat up a bit, but 10 majors and 18 hurricanes seem ''very ''unlikely IMO. Steven09876 05:24, January 4, 2014 (UTC) ::Expectations are rising as there is a potential El Nino bruing that could be exceptionally strong, or it could just flame out just like 2012. However, based on Levi Cowen's predication and analog years for the ATL (they ere 1957, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2009 I believe). In all of those season, something really special happened (most bland out of all those seasons was 1991, and that was during a true PDO+ era). I've also seen 1974 and 2011 listed as anologs if the El Nino does not pan out based on the US winter pattern and global weather pattern overall. And both 74 and 11 are seasons that are memorable. I haven't seen any formal predictions though last month I went with 18-8-5, but may revise that to 18-7-6. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 05:54, March 15, 2014 (UTC) 12 more days till season starts! An El Nino could make this season extremely active, so prepare guys. Steve820 20:58, May 3, 2014 (UTC) :And the season has officially began!! The potentially very active Pacific season starts now! This is just the beginning of what might be a wild season (or should I say, a rollarcoaster ride!) Steve820 00:14, May 16, 2014 (UTC) Pre-season predictions About five weeks from the start, and with the formation of an El Nino, exceptions have risen a bit. Right now, the WPAC and SPAc are active as well. Really second half of SHEM has been quite impressive. Let's get some formal predictions going. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 17:08, April 6, 2014 (UTC) :Maintaining my forecast from above. AndrewTalk To Me 20:34, April 6, 2014 (UTC) ::Lol, your NS count looks realistic, but you're cane and MH count is a bit high IMO. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 20:42, April 6, 2014 (UTC) ::El Niño looks to be the most powerful since 1997 I will put my odds at 20 to 23 ts 10 hurricanes and 6 to 8 majors. It may seem a really high prediction but with the upcoming strong El Niño might prediction well occur.Allanjeffs 01:08, April 10, 2014 (UTC) :::Because of what appears to be an extreme El Nino coming in, I'm revising my predictions to '''20-24' named storms, 9-13 hurricanes and 4-7 majors. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a record-breaking season this year, possibly on the level of 1992. Steve820 03:36, April 10, 2014 (UTC) :::::My predictions have been updated in my last blog post here. I'm thinking below normal ATL, above-normal EPac and WPac, and near-normal elsewhere. Ryan1000 19:48, April 11, 2014 (UTC) September Hi new month. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 05:35, September 1, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Lowell This has got to be the longest lasting piece of crap floating in the middle of nowhere, tied with Guillermo 07 and Fausto 02. Halfway to Alaska. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 02:06, September 2, 2014 (UTC) :What is Lowell up to now? He doesn't want to die, apparently. Not sure what Alaska's going to see from this. AndrewTalk To Me 12:11, September 6, 2014 (UTC) 14E.NORBERT Aoi:Tropical Wave Likely a part of a tropical wave that spawned 97L. It should form despite next to no model support. 0/20. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 00:17, August 31, 2014 (UTC) :Any development is going to be slow from the AOI. If it does come, I want it to be a hurricane due to the success Norbert has had over his EPAC career. AndrewTalk To Me 01:53, August 31, 2014 (UTC) ::A hurricane is possible as shown by NOGAPS, but not likely. 10/50. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 21:24, August 31, 2014 (UTC) 93E.INVEST The AOI has been invested. It's rather disorganized right now, and it doesn't appear to have the luxury Marie did. Anyway, chances of development are now at '''20%' for the next two days and 60% for the next five. AndrewTalk To Me 02:29, September 1, 2014 (UTC) :It has very low shear and very high SST's. LGEM and SHIPS brings this into the gulf, which are currently the warmest SST's in the world. NOGAPS and HWRF make this strong, with the NOGAPS have it passing W of Baja and the HWRF brings it near or over Baja but bombs it out in the GOC. CMC and the ECMWF keep it a TS but is like NOGAPS in tracks, while GFS does not do much with it. This is either going to be a win for NOGAPS/HWRF or GFS/GFDL. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 02:45, September 1, 2014 (UTC) ::I'd love to see the NOGAPS scenario verify. Anyway, chances of formation are now at '''70%' for the next five days. AndrewTalk To Me 09:31, September 1, 2014 (UTC) Come on, Ridgeback! FORM!!! :) I'm sure he will. “i liek turtlez 14:39, September 1, 2014 (UTC) :Consensus is clear on what is going to happen. A TS or weak hurricane will form, pass near Cabo, turn W, then NNE, and hit the Central part of the peninsula. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 16:38, September 1, 2014 (UTC) ::I want this to form into Norbert and become a hurricane if it can! Currently 20/80. 93E, you can do it! :)--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 23:20, September 1, 2014 (UTC) :::30/80. Models in fantastic agreement on it missing the southern tip, but a landfall in central Baja, YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 00:06, September 2, 2014 (UTC) If this becomes a hurricane, we'll have the longest consecutive streak of Pacific hurricanes ever, surpassing 1993's record of 7 (which 2014 currently ties), but don't expect it to get past cat 2 intensity or so, as it heads northwest then north towards Baja. 'Ryan1000' 02:51, September 2, 2014 (UTC) : Should become Norbert anytime now...100/100. 'Ryan1000' 11:46, September 2, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Norbert Here. No watches or warnings. Only 50 knt peak, so the hurricane streak is forecast to end. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 14:48, September 2, 2014 (UTC) : Oh well...I won't be surprised if it doesn't become a hurricane, but I still hope for at least a minimal cat 1 before dying. This is nearly 5 weeks before the typical formation date of an EPac season's 14th storm. 'Ryan1000' 20:15, September 2, 2014 (UTC) :: I also won't be surprised if it doesn't become a hurricane, but I have a slight gut feeling that it will peak as probably a minimal C1. I hope that hurricane streak will end!--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 22:35, September 2, 2014 (UTC) ::::Why? You don't want to see a new record for most hurricanes in a row? YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 00:03, September 3, 2014 (UTC) ::::::On second thought...maybe it will. Norbert has organized quite a bit in the latest frames, now the forecast does call for a cat 1, though still remaining offshore. Hopefully it doesn't get too close for comfort with Baja. 'Ryan1000' 03:28, September 3, 2014 (UTC) :::::::(edit conflict) YE, I've just been getting a bit tired of all the hurricanes, that's why. Though I would also like to see the record being broken.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 03:29, September 3, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Steve, yea, but I'd still rather see a hurricane than a tropical storm. LAtesat 18z GFS it out; big shift north. This is starting to remind me of Paul 12 with the E shifts. Yesterday, I was confident on an OTS track, but now it is bring memories back of many other Baja TC's. However, I stress that this is only one run, and things can chance back W easily. BTW, this thing is up to 40 knts. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 03:41, September 3, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::Yeah, I'm pretty sure this will be a hurricane now. 60 mph according to latest advisory, and forecast to remain a hurricane for some time. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for much of southern Baja, but Norbert is expected to remain offshore and will do so if current trends continue. 'Ryan1000' 10:20, September 3, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::Now 70 mph...almost there. If the current late forecast track with this verifies from NHC, it might even threaten southern California in the long run. 'Ryan1000' 22:54, September 3, 2014 (UTC) Hurricane Norbert 8 hurricanes in a row! New record! YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 23:58, September 3, 2014 (UTC) : Dude, you beat me by a few minutes. Anyways looks like it finally became a hurricane! Congrats, Norbert, for breaking that record! 8 hurricanes in a row...that's pretty insane. The EPac never wants to take a break from producing all the hurricanes!--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:02, September 4, 2014 (UTC) ::Good boy, Norbert, keep up the good work (as long as you stay away from land, of course)! With the latest intermediate advisory, Norbert's reputation for consistently reaching hurricane strength each time it was used remains intact. It'd be cool if we could extend that record to 9, but the next name, ''Odile, is female, and we could use a break from the girls constantly beating the guys :P (Julio currently stands as the only male major out of six total, and even that was the only one so far not to become a Category 4. We'll see if Norbert changes that. It's currently forecast to peak at 90 kts, but given the NHC's low bias, I wouldn't be surprised if Norbert becomes a 3 or, if it pulls an Amanda/Cristina, a 4. I'd love to see Norbert reach 120 kts and become the name's strongest incarnation to date, just like what happened with Cristina, Genevieve, Iselle, Julio, Karina and, most notably, Marie.) --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:17, September 4, 2014 (UTC) : The EPAC is on fire right now!'' leeboy100 (talk)'' 00:11, September 4, 2014 (UTC) ::: Flooding and surf for southern Baja will probably not be too severe so long as Norbert remains offshore. I expect Norbert to become a cat 2 at its peak, though it could pull a 3 if it strengthens quick enough. Also, to be a little more specific about what I said before for Norbert forming nearly 5 weeks before the EPac's typical 14th storm...Norbert marked the 3rd earliest date for the "N" storm to form in the Eastern Pacific, after Newton '92 and Nora '85. Nanette '71 and Narda '89 came pretty damn close though. Ryan1000 19:54, September 4, 2014 (UTC) ::::Looks like Norbert will peak where it is now (80 kt/970 mbar)... meaning that Julio remains the only male storm so far this EPAC season to exceed C1 intensity. This is getting a tad irritating :/ Oh, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for a portion of Baja's west coast. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:55, September 5, 2014 (UTC) ::::It's off the shore of Baja but it might cause some damage as it's very close leeboy100 (talk) 11:00, September 5, 2014 (UTC) ::::::The core should remain offshore, but heavy rains will fall over the sparsely populated area. The big question is in 3 days, does it stall or turn north. I'd lean towards the former. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 12:25, September 5, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Uh oh, Norbert's getting a little too close for comfort for the folks in western Baja. Looks like it won't go without impact after all, especially if it keeps stalling at this rate. I doubt it will become much stronger than where it is now, but intensity doesn't really matter when a storm like this could cause very severe flooding due to its slow movement. 'Ryan1000' 17:51, September 5, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Question: how the heck can Norbert only have 80 kt winds when the pressure is as low as 966 mbar, which normally supports a strong Category 2 or weak Category 3? It's not unheard of in the Atlantic (Cristobal, Isaac, etc.) but I've never seen it happen in the EPAC before. Larger storms need lower pressures to generate higher winds (Lowell and Isaac being examples), but Norbert isn't even that big. For a point of comparison: when Julio's pressure was where Norbert's is now, it was a 100 kt major hurricane. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:01, September 5, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Reading wunderground* "966 MB and 90 MPH winds" WHAT!?!?!?!?!?!? Dylan you might be right, I haven't seen this happen in the EPAC either. The WPAC and the Atlantic, yes, but not EPAC. Then again this season has actually pulled some surprises. *cough* Amanda , Marie ,Genny, and Iselle *cough* :::::::::leeboy100 (talk) ''22:52, September 5, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::In response to your edit summary, Leeboy: my post was untouched, so don't worry :) Anyway, Norbert's a Category 2 now, 85 kts/963 mbar. Very low pressures... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:53, September 5, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::Yep, those pressures look unusually low for a storm that strength. Pretty rare for the EPac! And it looks like it finally became a C2, congrats Norbert! :) (Also, looking at the forecast track it would look like a potential threat to SoCal as a remnant low in the long run) --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:01, September 6, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::The lower pressures are likely due to the warm PDO if I had to make a guess. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 00:16, September 6, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::::Whoa whoa whoa, ATCF has Norbert up to 95 kt/961 mbar. This thing is bombing, and it's way too close to the Baja coast to do so comfortably. I take back what I said; this is not how I wanted our next male major :/ --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:04, September 6, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::::I'd just like to mention that I somehow managed to edit conflict '''with myself' while I was posting the above comment... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:15, September 6, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::::::This could actually be bad.......................... '' leeboy100 (talk) ''01:28, September 6, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::::::The ec with myself have been happening to me too. And the core is still a bit offshore Baja, and this part of Baja, very few people live. It's a small hurricane. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 01:46, September 6, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::::Winds are now at 110 MPH......not good :0 'leeboy100 (talk) '04:17, September 6, 2014 (UTC) Major Hurricane Norbert Norbert is now the 7th major hurricane of the season and hurricane force winds are affect baja california sur from what I am seeing. Allanjeffs 05:57, September 6, 2014 (UTC) : Well, it looks like Norbert did pull a major off. This makes the 1990 Norbert the only Norbert to not become a major hurricane, and we now have 7 majors. This season needs 3 more majors to tie the record set in 1992, and two more cat 4's to tie the record of 7 held by 1992 and 1993. I guess there is a possibility we could set (or tie) a record or two this year. I was a bit skeptical that this season could do it at first, but now I guess there's a distinct possibility of it happening. 'Ryan1000' 11:38, September 6, 2014 (UTC) ::Well, I wanted a hurricane from Norbert, and he gave me a major. Winds are at 105 knots (120 mph, 195 km/h) with a pressure of 957 mbar (hPa; 28.26 inHg). Julio's reign as the strongest male EPAC name of this season is over, and it looks like the males want revenge. >:) Norbert's accomplishment also marks the earliest date for an EPAC's seventh major since Jova in 1993. Anyway, a good chunk of Baja California is under TS warnings, namely between Santa Fe and Punta Eugenia. Gale-force winds and swells are going to be a slight problem for the next few days, but rainfall of potentially '''10 inches' might be the bad news for Baja. Also, since Norbert's eyewall has become a little less distinct, so he may not make it to C4 strength this time around. :( Pathwise, a ridge should keep the hurricane offshore for another couple of days before a trough hurls the remnants back at Baja. This will take Norbert into decreasing SST's, prompting the NHC to forecast degeneration into a remnant low in roughly three days. I'm pretty surprised the hurricane made it this far up, I was only expecting a minor hurricane at most. As a side note, may I ask why Norbert is so attracted to Baja California? Every one of his incarnations to date, minus his 1990 predesscor, has in some form affected the region. AndrewTalk To Me 12:06, September 6, 2014 (UTC) Welcome to Educating Norbert. Norbert is a new student here at Frederick Bremer school and is caught sneaking out of class with six other students. They are all placed in isolation. “i liek turtlez 15:19, September 6, 2014 (UTC) : Wow I didn't expect that Norbert would become a major! But it now looks like it's peaking. Baja looks like it's getting pounded from this and it is forecasted to make landfall in northern Baja as a remnant low, so maybe SoCal won't get anything I guess? And Liz you're so funny XD --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 20:18, September 6, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Norbert (2nd time) What a difference a day makes... I'm surprised no one has posted any updates on Norbert since its reign as a major hurricane ended, but it is currently a 50 kt/994 mbar tropical storm and fading fast. Hats off to you, Norbert, you were a great storm to track. Hopefully the effects weren't that bad. P.S.: Does anyone remember The Angry Beavers? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 19:13, September 7, 2014 (UTC) : Still 50 kts (60 mph) and 994 mbars, it might die out by tomorrow. Also there's thunderstorm clouds located out east from where I live and they might come here, could they be associated with Norbert? I hope we get some rain since we're in a huge drought at this moment! And I agree, it was a great storm to track. I don't remember "The Angry Beavers", because when it originally aired I was too young to really watch TV (apparently its original run was 1997-2001) and I don't really watch TV that much anyways.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 20:29, September 7, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Norbert And it's dead. It'll still cause potential flooding rains for parts of upper Baja over the next day or two though. Ryan1000 10:05, September 8, 2014 (UTC) Aoi:Euro system #1 Aoi:Euro system #1 0/50. Will likely be another system, but not too strong. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 00:13, September 6, 2014 (UTC) :Marie and Norbert have stolen all the good conditions. I definitely want something decent from this, too. However, only gradual development is expected from the NHC, so it may be a struggle for the AOI to become our eighth major. P.S. This is my 4,000th edit on this wiki; I have enjoyed posting on these forums for the past three years! AndrewTalk To Me 12:10, September 6, 2014 (UTC) :::We already have a record 8 consecutive hurricanes, it'd be even better if we can extend that to 9 this year, though if this becomes a hurricane, don't expect it to become a strong one. Nor do I want it to be a major, the female names are stealing all the ACE this year, and Odile is next on the list. :/ 'Ryan1000' 18:51, September 6, 2014 (UTC) ::::I hope that if it becomes Odile, it remains a TS because we need a female name to fail '''for once'! The EPac is getting crazy with hurricanes and it would be nice if we got a break from them! --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 20:20, September 6, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Don't you enjoy hurricanes though? Isn't that why we are here? I'd rather see males be stronger than females, but in the end, ill take a major every day and twice on Sundays. FTR, Elida was a fail and was female. From a meteorological prospective, models have backed off of this quite a bit. They were blowing this up quite a bit earlier, now barley develop it. Track is set for the next 10 days. It should form around 110-115W, meander, then drift NNE to NE, and then it'll either move onshore or having it moving W. Shear will be a serious issue however, it seems, as that is why the GFS likely keeps it broad and unorganized. Even the HWRF doesn't do much with it until landfall. Right now, the area where it is expected to form is very hostile, with strong shear and a ton of dry air. It is worth noting though that models have struggled with shear all season (which in terms of intensity and track, have taken a major set back this season). According to Ventrice's site, We do have a Kelvin Wave coming in a day or so, and shear can change easily, so that increases it's formation chances considerably. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 22:46, September 6, 2014 (UTC) :::::::GFS shows a 976 mbar hurricane. Unless a fail named Odile blows by nice and quick and the storm depicted in the model run is named Polo, I really hope that doesn't verify. Let Rachel become the season's final female hurricane, since neither of the name's two previous incarnations (1984 and 1990) were hurricanes, but otherwise, every female name can fail from here on out. Time for the males to rise to the occasion lol. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 04:39, September 7, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Yeah Elida was a fail YE, but that was the only female name this year that did not become a major hurricane. The only two male majors were Julio and Norbert, out of 7 total. Boris, Douglas, and Fausto didn't even become huricanes, and Hernan and Lowell barely scraped 75 mph. Although I enjoy seeing all the fish majors (except for Iselle...somewhat), I still find this season to be so sexist lol. Let's have a male name on the scale of, say Marie for once. 'Ryan1000' 11:48, September 7, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::I think Polo may have a shot to become strong if it moves slowly. I'd much prefer males names to be stronger as well, I'd take a major regardless of name. GFS is way more aggressive now, calling for a quite strong hurricane. Here we go again. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 15:24, September 7, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::I agree, this might have a shot of being something strong. I hope this system is '''Polo' instead of Odile, because Odile 'is a female name and we've had ''way ''too much powerful female storms this season. Also to me Polo sounds like the name of a powerful system. The EPac has been too sexist and it would be great if the males caught up :P --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 20:32, September 7, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::20/60. Should be yet another powerful hurricane. As long a shear is low, which it should, this should end up becoming a major. We have a CCKW coming in to provide help. CCKW skyrockets RI chances, and this CCKW will very very strong, almost as strong as the one that spawned us Karina, Lowell, Marie, and in the ATL, Cristobal. CCKW has aided in every RI this year except for Norbert and Genevieve. Also added in Raymond 13's EI last year. So, here we go again. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 23:52, September 7, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::::''Sigh... if Odile has to be a major hurricane, then please let it be only a marginal one (100 kts), so that Julio, Norbert, and hopefully another male name or two can be stronger. Yeah Ryan, I've thought this was a sexist season ever since Genny exploded. Thank you for confirming that I wasn't crazy :P At this point, Rachel is the only female name I want to go to a major hurricane, since neither of its previous two incarnations (1984 and 1990) exceeded TS strength (plus, if Rachel could, by some miracle, explode enough to beat Marie, I would win in the betting pools :D). Ditto Simon, so if Polo can't become our male C4 to level the playing field a little bit (Norbert helped, but it and Julio are still the only majors not to become 4s), hopefully Simon will. --'''Dylan (Hurricane 99) 11:34, September 8, 2014 (UTC) Aoi:CMC system Aoi:CMC system 0/20. I don't buy this, but 18z GFS shows it. It'll be a repeat of 94C IMO. Or a weak TS like Fausto. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 00:26, September 7, 2014 (UTC) : I don't see much coming out of this.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 01:59, September 7, 2014 (UTC) :::Gone from TWO. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 23:47, September 7, 2014 (UTC) Aoi:Euro system #2 Aoi:Euro system #2 Currently over Central America. Assuming it does not enter the BOC, there's a good chance this could form late next week. Will likely be a slow moving according to the GFS, altohugh the Euro (when they showed it a few days ago) showed a much faster motion, but that is before it began to organize in the WCARB. GFS has long been bullish with this, and the 6z run showed a slow moving major hurricane that resembles Lane 06. Although normally, I'd be inclined to think a Raymond 13 or Hilary 11 situation is more likely, given the GFS's faults, it shows an epic trough off the west coast of California. Granted, the GFS has been acting very strange as of late. It's taken a turn for the worse this year all in all. For instance, it has sometimes being showing a blast of super cold air coming to the Midwest US (and most of the US in fact, sans the SW) coming from the Artic in the long (but not super long) range, but that is far fetched, giving it is still summer. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 22:46, September 6, 2014 (UTC) : This is interesting. It might be Polo if one of the above two AOIs develop and it could even be a major in the long run. It's a bit early to tell if it would be a major though but still something to watch.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 02:02, September 7, 2014 (UTC) :::Models have been less aggressive with this as of late. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 03:16, September 8, 2014 (UTC) Aoi:GFS CPAC system #1 Aoi:GFS CPAC system #1 GFS develops 2 TC's near 170W in the CPAC later this week, including one strong as it hears to the WPAC. No mention on CPHC TWO of course. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 03:16, September 8, 2014 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Mine: *Iselle - 60% - If they tried to retire Daniel, they would try to do this too. *Everything else - 0% - Meh. --Isaac829 04:19, August 23, 2014 (UTC) YE's: #Amanda: 1% since it was epic. #Boris: 3% killed a few ppl #Cristina 1% As epic as Amanda. #Douglas 0% Was okay. #Elida 0% Fail #Fausto 0% an epic epic epic fail. #Wali 0% See Elida #Geneive 1% just an epic long track, but it aint going anywhere #Hernan 0% fish system #Iselle 35% Very tricky. Hawaii is super lenient, but they'll never had a middle of the ground storm like this. They'll request probs though. #Julio 1% For passing north of Hawaii #Karina 0% fish system Since when is Amanda a fish storm? It killed 3 people. Cristina affected land as well, FTR. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 21:15, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :There is no need for this section! We're only one fish storm in, for crying out loud! Please wait until later. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:22, May 25, 2014 (UTC) Steve's retirement predictions: *Amanda: 1% - Didn't significantly affect land but was an epic and awesome storm that surprised us by strengthening to strongest May storm in EPac on record! It caused the deaths of 3-4 people which is why it is 1%. *Boris: 2% - Caused destruction in Central America but most likely it isn't getting retired because it only caused 5 deaths. *Cristina: 0% - It was also an epic and awesome storm, similar to Amanda, but it isn't getting the boot due to the storm not affecting land. *Douglas: 0% - It really tried even though it only peaked as weak TS, but since it didn't affect land it won't be retired. *Elida: 1% - It actually did cause some slight impacts, but it's certainly not going and will be back in 2020. *Fausto: -∞% - 'nuff said *Wali: -∞% - See Fausto *Genevieve - 0.1% - Very freakin awesome, especially because it was a weak TS for a couple weeks before exploding into a '''Category 5'!!! Wow! It didn't affect land though but it gets a tiny extra point for awesomeness. *Hernan: 0% - It broke our weak TS streak, but since it didn't cause any impacts, a retirement is not going to happen. *'Iselle: 60% - Hawaii's third costliest storm and strongest Big Island landfall ever. It was also a fun-to-track Category 4. Due to these Hawaiian impacts and their retirement standards, it has a good shot at going.' *Julio: 0% - Fun to track and pulled a surprising stunt on us near the end by re-strengthening to a hurricane in high latitudes, but since it didn't affect land Julio will come back in 2020. *Karina: 0% - Just a typical minimal hurricane without affecting land. Pulled a Douglas/Julio out of the hat and lasted longer than expected. *Lowell: 0% - Didn't affect land *Marie: 0% - Awesome Cat. 5 but not going due to lack of land effects. *Norbert: ? - Still active Steve820 21:30, May 25, 2014 (UTC) (last updated 22:36, September 2, 2014 (UTC)) ::(Edit conflict) Dylan, Amanda was definitely not a fish storm because of its extremely rare intensity. AndrewTalk To Me 21:31, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::Whether or not a storm is a fish has zilch to do with its intensity. Fish storms are not necessarily weak storms; they are storms that do not even do so much as breathe on any landmasses during their existence. Amanda falls into that category. Granted, it was still a very impressive hurricane, but a fish storm nonetheless. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:39, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::Here's mine ::*Amanda: 1%- While it was an impressive storm, it isn't going to be retired because it hasn't affected land. (Updated to 1% due to the deaths in Mexico) ::*Boris: 3%- Didn't actually track this storm but I'll give it a 3 because it caused six fatalities. ::*Cristina:-'' 1% damage wasn't too bad ::*Douglas- 0% no ::*Elida-0% NO ::*Fausto-0% '''NO' ::*Wali-0% I didn't even know this storm existed. ::*Genevieve- 0% Just like Amanda. Impressive storm that didn't affect land. ::*Hernan-0% it became a hurricane. That's about it ::*'Iselle-55%- Due to its effects on Hawaii ($53 million and fortunately only 1 death) it has a good chance at retirement. Although the WMO is strange at retiring EPAC names. However, it's safe to say Hawaii will probably request retirement.' ::*Julio-0% an interesting storm to track that almost hit Hawaii. ::*Karina-0% The only reason I can think of that could get this name retired is sounding too much like "Katrina" but no. ::*Lowell-0% See Hernan ::*Marie-0% an amazing cat. 5. Like her sisters Amanda and Genevieve it didn't affect land though ::*Norbert-''currently active'' '' leeboy100 (talk) 00:31, September 4, 2014 (UTC)'' :::Just because something was epic it doesn't mean she needs to get points to be honest right now her chance is 0% it might go up if her remnants or whatever is left gives rain to Mexico and the USA,but I believe they are going to be more beneficial that harmful.Allanjeffs 22:42, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::Isaac, can we seriously wait on starting this section from now on? We shouldn't begin the retirements section until we either 1) have a decent number of storms, or 2) have something worth retiring. Beginning this right after the "A" storm (which didn't even affect land) is premature and we won't get a meaningful discussion out of it, it's pretty obvious to everyone that Amanda won't get retired. Wait a little more from now on. Ryan1000 04:55, May 26, 2014 (UTC) :::::So Amanda may get 1% after all she killed three to four people in Mexico.Allanjeffs 01:31, June 3, 2014 (UTC) My thoughts: East Pacific: *Amanda - 1% - That 1% is just because of the few deaths in Mexico, not for being epic. *Boris - 3% - More impact than Amanda, but still not enough for retirement. *Cristina - 0% - No damage, no deaths, no retirement. Nuff said. *Douglas - 0% - ^^ *Elida - 1% - Actually it did cause some minor damage here and there, so it's not a 0%. *Fausto - Faulure% - Need I say more? *Genevieve - 0% - My god, what a storm! Who could've guessed that Genevieve would go from being a weakling TS that died twice in the CPac to becoming a category 5 super typhoon and the most powerful storm worldwide in 2013. It showed all of us what happens when you keep trying and don't give up. :) All while it was far out to sea, with no damage or casualties reported. *Hernan - 0% - Well hey, at least we finally got another hurricane... *Iselle - 50% - Eh, sue me. I really don't know what to think of this storm's chances for retirement. While Iselle killed a person and caused 53 million in damage (making it Hawaii's 3rd costliest storm after Iwa and Iniki), those numbers don't appear too high on paper and the post-storm media hype with this one didn't last as long as it did with past U.S. landfalling storms. I'd say it's a toss-up -- It could very well be retired for its unique nature and so-called "unprecedented" impacts on the Big Island, but I also wouldn't be too surprised if it's not retired since the damage and death toll weren't too extreme. We'll see. *Julio - 0% - Total fishspinner, but I'm surprised it went up to a hurricane again in the far north Central Pacific. *Karina - 0% - Another hurricane, but well away from any land. *Lowell - 0% - The remnants did bring some rain to southern California, but no damages or deaths were reported. In fact, it might have even been beneficial to them since they've been in a severe drought for most of this year. *Marie - 3% - Killed 3 people from offshore drownings and caused 3 million in damage. Not a complete fail, but not enough for retirement either. *Norbert - ?? - Currently affecting parts of Baja, we'll see how badly in a few days. Central Pacific: *Wali - 0% - If you blinked, you missed it. Ryan1000 10:21, June 30, 2014 (UTC) :Cristina wasn't a *total* fishspinner. IT passed near Socorro Island (has roughly 200 ppl on it) and brought waves to MX. Odv staying though :P 20:42, June 30, 2014 (UTC) Alright, here are mine as of June 30: *Amanda — <1% Nope. *Boris — ≤1% Nope. *Cristina — <1% Nope. *Douglas — <1% Nope. *Elida — ≤1% Probably nope. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 21:39, June 30, 2014 (UTC) : Passing by a (relatively) unpopulated island doesn't count in my book. And waves to Mexico, eh, at least it didn't kill anyone like Amanda did. Still a 0% :P Ryan1000 22:31, June 30, 2014 (UTC) ::Since we have reached the "D" name, I will post my predictions for the EPAC. #Amanda - 1% - It caused three fatalities and damaged several roads and structures across Western Mexico, but these impacts do not even hold a candle to last year's Manuel. #Boris - 2% - Widespread impact and six fatalities have been reported across southern Mexico and Guatemala. I doubt retirement however, given Agatha's snub. #Cristina - <1% - Some waves along the Mexican coastline, but nothing too severe. #Douglas - 0% - For a storm of its intensity and environment, this was a very strong fighter against the world. However, since no damages or deaths were reported from Douglas, it will most likely stay. #Elida - 0% - Elida did the best she could against the heavy wind shear and Douglas. Nevertheless, she miserably failed. Not even Mexico witnessed anything from her!!! #Fausto - 0% - Absolutely no impacts were reported from Fausto, and I do not even think this system deserved a name anyway. #Wali - 0% - Wali was a miserable fail, just like a CPAC Fausto. #Genevieve - 0% - I am very impressed by the show Genevieve gave us. I remember when we were first calling the storm a pathetic fail (not me, at least!) and just saying it sucked when she poofed away. Then Genny tried hard to prove us wrong and she only got so far again. So she passed away again, but her spirit still stayed with her, and she refused to give up hope. Finally, she did what every EPAC system dreams of doing - live in all three basins and become a modest Category 5 hurricane. It was worth the struggle. Genny accomplished her dream, and even better, harmed no one. While we know she isn't going, she was a very impressive system for her age and day. #Hernan - 0% - Hernan became a respectable weak hurricane, albeit a weak one. However, only the Revillagigedo Islands were affected, and no impact has been reported yet. So it's safe to assume Cortes has to wait another six years. #'Iselle - 60% - Well, Miss Iselle is going to be a tricky one. She started off real excited and attained C4 intensity in a region that normally could only handle a C2. Then she did the annular trick and went straight to Hawaii's doorstep as a moderate TS. Her landfall on the Big Island is the strongest one to ever occur. And that obviously didn't go without impact. Damaging surf and strong winds around Hilo downed a number of trees and unroofed some houses. Over 20,000 are without power due to all the power lines Iselle downed. Of strong note is what happened in Puna; the power failure in a geothermal plant has released toxic hydrogen sulfide gases into the air, which could suffocate dozens. Currently, one fatality has been reported from the hurricane, and damage reports are at $53 million (2014 USD). Call me overcasting, but Hawaii requested Flossie '07 and Daniel '06 for retirement, both of which caused effectively nothing. Iselle, however, has left a huge mark for Hawaii, and it's likely going based on their retirement standards.' #Julio - 0% - Julio was a very impressive major hurricane and shocked me with his little re-intensification stunt. However, no land impacts, so no retirement for him. #Karina - 0% - Karina fought long and strong for two weeks against everything that could have killed her. But no impacts, so she's not moving a muscle. #Lowell - 0% - Became a hurricane unexpectedly, but caused nothing. #Marie - 2% - Actually, Marie was a little more impacting than some of you think. The Mexican state of Oaxaca declared a disaster due to all the flooding and landslides, and two people were swept out to sea. Santa Catalina Island reported huge boulders tossed onshore and docked boats were ripped off their stands, which caused $3 million (2014 USD) in losses. There was also a fatality in Malibu from someone hit by a rock. Marie was surely impressive as a Category 5, but it didn't leave nothing behind. #Norbert - TBA - Still Active AndrewTalk To Me 01:36, July 1, 2014 (UTC) We have enough storms for me: ;Eastern Pacific *Amanda: 2% - 3 deaths won't cut it, but damn, this was certainly an excellent early-season surprise. *Boris: 8% - Caused more impact than Amanda, but probably not enough for retirement. *Cristina: 0% - It may have been almost as strong as Amanda and set several records for its early-season intensity, but a fish is a fish is a fish, regardless of how impressive or powerful it is. *Douglas: 0% - http://img3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20130917044500/glee/images/b/bc/You_tried_.png *Elida: 0% 1% - http://ih1.redbubble.net/image.13056045.3033/fc,550x550,white.jpg :*Actually, there was some impact after all, but it was only minor. *Fausto: Pun% - *faustpalm* *Genevieve: 0% - Epic win for the intensity it reached after struggling for nearly two weeks, but it steered clear of land areas. *Hernan: Hurricane% - Finally. *'Iselle:' 51% - With Daniel '06 and Flossie '07, Hawaii proved itself willing to request the retirement of anything that dares to breathe on them. Since Iselle actually hit them - and made its mark, too - then if Hawaii submits Iselle for consideration, the WMO may be more likely to oblige this time around. *Julio: 0% - Kudos for becoming a major hurricane and surviving relatively far north for a Pacific hurricane, but like I said about Cristina, a fish is a fish is a fish. *Karina: 0% - Fishspinner, but it was also the EPAC's longest-lasting storm in a while. Two weeks is difficult to pull off in this part of the world, and for that, Karina deserves kudos. *Lowell: 0% - Became a hurricane when it was thought that its large size would preclude it from doing so, but other than that, not much to see here. I haven't heard of any adverse affects from Lowell's supposed moisture enhancement in the southeastern United States. *Marie: 0% - Fishspinner, but becoming a Category 5 is no small feat. Bravo, Marie, bravo! ;Central Pacific *Wali: 0% - I mean at least it was a CPAC storm, which doesn't happen all that often. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:58, July 1, 2014 (UTC) Here's mine: *Amanda: 1% - Gave us an early season surprise, but its 3 deaths won't cut it. *Boris: 5% - Impacts weren't significant enough. *Cristina: 1% - It became a monster, but it was a fish. *Douglas: 0% - He tried, but he failed. *Elida: 0% - She didn't even try. - HurricaneHunter99 (talk) 17:27, July 2, 2014 (UTC) :??? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 17:54, July 2, 2014 (UTC) ::Dylan, is that a doppelganger account of yours? AndrewTalk To Me 21:30, July 2, 2014 (UTC) :::Nah, just someone who wishes they could be like me ;) --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:03, July 2, 2014 (UTC) ::::My predictions for this season. :::*Amanda: 1% - It became a C4, but it didn't cause impacts neccessary for retirement. :::*Boris: 1% - Given that this system gave minimal effects and Mexico is picky with retirements, Boris is staying. :::*Cristina: 1% - Pulled off a good show and rivaled Amanda in intensity, she's not going anywhere. :::*Douglas: 0% - He tried, but his large size prevented him from pulling off a good show. :::*Elida: 0% - Elida didn't even try, she truly failed. :::*Fausto: 0% - Completely ruined its image as a strong storm. :::*Wali: 0% - Added to the unneccessary tropical storm spam. :::*Genevieve: 0% - I can't see it happening. :::*Hernan: 0% - Finally ended the tropical storm spam, otherwise Hernan is staying. Simlover123 23:13, July 26, 2014 (UTC) ::::Amanda: 1% Stunning and early surprise storm but she is not going 3 deaths are not going to make Mexico ask for her. ::::Boris: 3% Minimal damage at most, Mexico have seen much worse storms who haven't been retired not excuse for this one. ::::Cristina:0% Amazing storm but she is not going as she didn't affect land. ::::Douglas:0% I expect a fail of him and I recieve a fail, but I give him credit for living longer than forecast. ::::Elida: 0% Expect much more from her and I get an epic fail. ::::Fausto:0% Epic Failure. That says it all ::::Genevieve: Active ::::Hernan: 0% Just because he was a hurricane doesn't mean he is a candidate for retirement. He did nothing at all. ::::Iselle: Active ::::Julio: Active ::::Wali: 0% Another failureeeeee. ::::Allanjeffs 04:26, July 8, 2014 (UTC) :::*Amanda = 10% Too cool for retirement. :::*Boris = 1% Even Boris Johnson thought this storm was nothing special. :::*Cristina = 5% She is beautiful, no matter what you say, but she aint movin. :::*Douglas = -3% Next! :::*Elida = -10% Yawn. :::*Fausto = -821973892638742748% -grabs vomit bucket- :::*Genevieve = 10% Super ADHD storm for the win! :::*Hernan = Yawn% “i liek turtlez 14:53, August 24, 2014 (UTC) ::::Here's my prediction ::::HERE WE GO! Replacement Names Although it's not a guarantee, there is a possibility Iselle could be retired due to its impacts on Hawaii. That being said, what are your thoughts on possible replacement names for Iselle? My suggestions are: *Ivy *Isha *Isla *Indira *Ines *Ivana *Ilene *Ivette *Ilsa *Isabela *Inga *Ilse *Ivonne *Ivanna Out of these suggestions (feel free to post more), I would pick Inga. Ryan1000 01:24, August 17, 2014 (UTC) :I'm not completely sure Iselle is doomed to go, but here are my top ten suggestions - *'Iggy' *Innocente *Iphigenia *Isabel *Ione *Isuelt *Irmelin *Inmaculada *Ilse *Imelia AndrewTalk To Me 12:26, August 19, 2014 (UTC) Like Iggy Azealea? Fancy name. Anyway, I thought of Imani. “i liek turtlez 16:24, August 19, 2014 (UTC) :I think Isabel and anything too similar is out of the question since the name was retired from the Atlantic lists only a decade ago. My top pick would be Ione - also retired in the Atlantic, but that was nearly 6 decades ago, and the name was subsequently used in the Pacific several times before male names were introduced. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 17:56, August 19, 2014 (UTC) :Iggy is good. 16:31, August 22, 2014 (UTC) I was thinkin'that Iggy would kill mario for 2019. Here's my suggestions: *'Ivy' *'Ivana' *Ivette *'Iggy' *'Ione' *Imelia *Ilsa *Isla *'Inga' *Ivonne Ones that I like the most are in bold. It would also be cool to have a system named after Iggy Azalea. :D --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 16:48, August 22, 2014 (UTC) :Or Iggy Pop. I'd much rather have Iggy used in a male context for that reason :P --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:37, August 23, 2014 (UTC) Post-season changes The first TCR of the season was released on the 12th, so I figured it was time to start this section. Boris's strength was upped to 40 kts/998 mbar (from the operational peak of 35 kts/999 mbar). It also never made landfall - while it was operationally believed to have done so, post-analysis found that the low-level center actually remained offshore, coming within 20 nmi of the coast before dissipating. No deaths were reported from Boris while it was a tropical cyclone, but the precursor disturbance killed 5 in Guatemala. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:37, August 23, 2014 (UTC) : Looks Like Cristina and Elida are now out. Nothing's particularly special intensity-wise, but the NHC report did say there was some extensive beach erosion and damage to hotels along the southern Mexican coast from Elida, so it looks like she wasn't a complete fail. Updated to include her a 1%. Ryan1000 20:25, August 26, 2014 (UTC) ::I wasn't expecting that much impact from Elida. Guess she wasn't so pathetic after all. AndrewTalk To Me 07:35, August 29, 2014 (UTC) ::::Fausto is out, nothing special though. Ryan1000 17:57, September 5, 2014 (UTC)